KARACHI: Government is expected to announce Federal Budget FY23 on June 10, 2022. Pakistan is eyeing revival of an IMF program and it is likely that the upcoming budget will have measures that promotes fiscal austerity and stabilization.
According to a report issued by Topline Securities, budget outlay for FY23 is estimated at Rs9-9.5trn (11.5% to 12% of GDP) as against budget of Rs8.5trn (12.7% of GDP) for FY22.
Government is likely to set tax revenue collection target of Rs7.25trn for FY23 (9.2% of GDP), which is up 19% from the revised target of Rs6.1trn (9% of GDP) for
FY22. It is likely to impose new taxation measures of Rs400-450bn in FY23 budget.
Current expenditure target is likely to be set at 12% of GDP in FY23 or Rs8trn which is around 11% YoY higher than what was budgeted in FY22. Similarly, government is likely to set aside Rs3.5-Rs3.9trn (4.5%-5.0% of GDP) for markup payment for FY23 budget and Rs1.6trn is likely to be set aside for Defense expenditure which is 2.1% of GDP.
For FY23, Federal Public Sector Development (PSDP) is budgeted at Rs800bn vs. Rs466bn disbursed in 10MFY22 and revised budgeted amount of Rs603bn for FY22.
Consolidated PSDP (Federal & Provincial) is anticipated to clock in at Rs1.4trn (1.8% of GDP) in FY23, as against Rs1.2trn in FY22.
Few taxation measures that are under consideration includes: 1) increase in super tax for Banking sector and reimposition of super tax on highly profitable companies, 2) increase in tax rate for individuals earning high salaries, 3) reduction in tax concessions and exemptions for various sectors, 4) increase in regulatory duties on luxury items, 5) luxury tax on immovable property & vehicles, and 6) increase in taxes for non-filers.
With economic slowdown, tax revenue target of Rs7.25trn will be challenging to achieve in FY23. However, it will depend on the amount of new taxes to be imposed in Budget FY23.
Upcoming budget is likely to be Neutral for Stock Market as we do not anticipate any change in Capital Gain Tax (CGT) rate of 12.5% and tax rate of 15% on dividend income. The budget is likely to be Neutral to Positive for sectors including Technology & Communication, Fertilizer, Insurance and Chemical Sectors. On other hand, it is likely to be Neutral to Negative for sectors including IPPs, Autos, Banks, Oil & Gas Exploration, Cement, Textile, OMCs, Tobacco, Steel and Pharmaceuticals.