KARACHI: The overall electricity generation surged 9.0 percent YoY in April 2019 to 9,717GWh, data released by National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) suggests.
[the_ad id=”32940″]“The increase in production is mostly on the back of a 77 percent rise in RLNG-based generation and a 46 percent uptick in Hydel power – cumulatively contributing to over half of the energy mix,” Ali Zaidi at JS Global Capital said.
Total generation saw a 28 percent surge from March 2019 mostly on the back of 68 percent MoM growth in RLNG based generation and a 39 percent MoM rise in Hydel power.
Gas remained the third largest contributor with 1,789GWh of power generated, up 8.0 percent YoY in April. Given the government’s stance on shifting away from Furnace Oil (FO) based production, FO saw a 69 percent YoY decline in production mostly due to a high base.
Cumulatively, during 10MFY19 (July-April 2018-19), aggregate power generation increased marginally by 3.0 percent to 96,938 GWh on the back of 52 percent increase in RLNG-based production and 42 percent rise in coal-based generation while power produced using FO fell by 59 percent to 7,999GWh.
However, on a MoM basis FO based production increased by nearly 11x to 481GWh (on low base factor) to meet base-load demand during summer months.
While average cost of generation decreased 13 percent YoY in April 2019, it increased by 10 percent on a sequential monthly basis to clock is at Rs5.52/kWh. As has been the trend, FO remained the most costly source of power generation at Rs12.34/KWh (up 54 percent YoY, 9 percent MoM).
At Rs9.40/KWh, RLNG remained the second most expensive source, (35 percent YoY decline reported on high base factor). Coal, which contributed to nearly 10 percent of the power generated, was comparatively cheaper at Rs6.91/KWh (up 7 percent YoY, down 3 percent MoM). Similarly, gas, which contributed over 18% toward the aggregate production, saw a 20 percent YoY rise in cost/unit produced.
Cumulatively during 10MFY19, the average cost of electricity generation was Rs5.38/KWh, up 7 percent YoY, evidently on the back of a RLNG-based generation (16 percent more expensive) and coal-based generation (36 percent more expensive).
“RLNG’s share in the energy mix saw a substantial rise from 23 percent in March 2019 to 31 percent in April 2019. However, it appears that while shifting reliance from FO in favor of RLNG is only relatively economical. Since FO, RLNG and a significant amount of coal used in power generation is all imported, further depreciation in the Rupee against the Dollar could push up generation costs. Furthermore, the rising trend of crude oil (to which RLNG and FO prices are linked) could further inflate the cost of production, at least in the short term,” Ali Zaidi at JS Global Capital said.