KARACHI: Speakers at the International Conference on the State of Pakistan Economy are convinced that the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a ‘game changer’ for Pakistan.
Speakers at the conference organized by Instituteof Business Management (IOBM) were unanimous that the international finance institutions (IFIs) never were in favor of a strong, sovereign Pakistan; and the country must get out of the clutches of IMF and other IFIs.
Dr. Natalia Zamaraeva of Institute of Oriental Studies Moscow, said CPEC was the collection of projects under construction, which was a $46 billion plan to interface development strategy of two countries.
“China is expanding cooperation in the fields of railways, highways, steel, automotive, electricity, engineering, high technology and environmental projects. As these projects are implemented, investment from other continents would also pour in to Pakistan,” Dr. Natalia said.
Talking about geo-political disturbance in the region, Dr. Natalia said Pakistan Army was directly involved in this regional game changer. “Pakistan’s federal army would avoid any sort of confrontation in the region or beyond at this pint of time,” Dr. Natalia opined and also quoted General Raheel Shareef that army would protect CPEC.
She said China was also establishing a naval base in Gwadar, which was not the part of CPEC, but it was aimed at protecting Chinese investment and interests in the region.
Dr. Shahida Wizarat Head of Economics Department IOBM said CPEC would help Pakistanattain water, food and energy security.
“A viable industrial structure is proposed to be established along the CPEC route. I have suggested that by passing on the CPEC spillovers to countries in the region we can make a strong coalition of CPEC protagonists,” Dr. Wizarat added.
“Pakistan should try to spillover the CPEC benefits to other countries in the region which are desirous to have access to the Gwadar port. This will create multiplier effects and bring prosperity to the entire region. Pakistan will also derive positive economic-socio-political benefits from passing on these spillovers to the region. It will also create a coalition of countries that are CPEC beneficiaries”.
She said geographically contiguous countries like Afghanistan, Iran, the Russian Federation, Central Asian Republics could be included through extension of the rail and road links to these countries.
Talking about controversies that CPEC is generating, she said there might be some genuine inter-provincial insecurities and a sense of exclusion in the smaller provinces that need to be addressed.
“Chinese are not satisfied with sovereign guarantees of the government of Pakistan, but want the Pakistan army to be the guarantor,” she observed.
Dr. Wizarat sharply criticized the international donor agencies particularly IMF. “Pakistan has experienced a major come down in terms of rate of GDP growth from 1960s. The spectacular rates of growth of that decade were followed by more modest growth rates during the 1970s. But even in the 1980s the average rate of growth of GDP was 6.1 percent, declining to only 4.6 percent during the 1990s when Pakistan got afflicted by the IMF”.
Hasan Javed, former ambassador and Director Chinese Center NUST, said Pakistan’s economy was a story of missed opportunities, still struggling for economic take-off.
“The financial and economic hit men on the payroll of IFIs were never serious in undertaking structural reforms that could have unleashed the potential of the productive forces of the country,” Javed said.
He said it was against the perspective of gloom and doom of Pakistan’s economy running permanently on the crutches of IMF programs for long, that China in April 2015 announced to invest $46 billion for building Pakistan Economic Corridor (EPEC), a flagship project under ‘one belt, one road’ initiative
“China’s medium to long term objectives include outsourcing its excess industrial capacity, developing new growth points and relocation of industrial zones etc,” Javed added.
He said that China was a success story, and despite differences in social orientation, political system and cultural contexts, Chinese development experience was relevant to Pakistan for many reasons.
“Pakistan has the capacity to develop fast, it could undertake comprehensive structural reforms in all sectors of life for economic and social take-off benefitting from China’s development experience and not cosmetic IMF driven directives to keep national income accounts in balance,” Hasan Javed.
Speaking on the occasion, Consul General of Russia in Pakistan, Oleg N. Avdeev invited the trade bodies and industry representatives of Pakistan to increase interaction with Russian businessmen so that economic ties between the two countries could be taken to the next level.