KARACHI: According to the latest numbers revealed by the Oil Companies Advisory Committee (OCAC), volumetric sales for both black and white oil declined during 10MFY19 (July-April 2018-19) with overall oil marketing companies (OMC) volumes clocking-in at 15.24 million tons as compared to 20.08 million tons sold in the corresponding period of last year, depicting a notable decline of 24%YoY.[the_ad id=”31605″]With regards to April 2019 sales performance, POL volumes fell 11% YoY but rose 14% MoM to 1.66 million tons, a report issued by Pearl Securities noted.
Higher base-effect of furnace oil (FO) continues to skew growth numbers for POL volumes as FO sales declined 57% YoY during 10MFY19 whereas monthly FO volumes were also down 26% YoY. However on a MoM basis, FO sales rose 48% in April 2019 owing to seasonal shift as the country enters peak demand season of summer. With change in country’s power generation mix to other fuel sources (Coal & RLNG), FO sales will continue to keep total POL volumes on the lower side during FY19.
In white oil segment, Motor spirit (MS) remains the bright spot with sales at 6.18 million tons (+2% YoY) during 10MFY19 whereas April 2019 MS volumes clocked-in at 0.68 million tons, up 4%YoY/5%MoM.
Moreover, High-speed diesel (HSD) sales continued to slide with fall of 19% YoY during 10MFY19 whereas April 2019 HSD volumes were down 16% YoY but were up 13% on MoM basis. Slowdown in economic activity, insipid auto sales & increase in smuggled Iranian fuel has impaired demand for retail fuel volumes during 10MFY19.
Pakistan State Oil (PSO) volumes declined 39% YoY to clock-in at 6.20 million tons in 10MFY19, primarily due to significant fall in FO sales as the state-owned oil giant sold only 1.12 million tons of FO versus 3.80 million tons sold during 10MFY18 (-71% YoY).
With regards to April 2019 sales, FO & HSD volumes declined 16% YoY and 14% YoY, respectively whereas MS sales depicted increase of 14% YoY during the month. PSO continuous to face competitive pressure from other OMCs where its market share during 10MFY19 in all major fuels i.e. FO/MS/HSD has fallen to 46%/37%/38%, down 21ppsYoY/3ppsYoY/5ppsYoY, respectively.
Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) oil sales during 10MFY19 clocked in at 1.62 million tons, down 8% YoY. However, APL still managed to lift its overall market share by 1.9pps to almost 11% during 10MFY19 as MS volumes for APL were up 14% YoY during the period whereas its share in MS market increased by 1.0pps YoY to around 10%.
On the other hand, HSD and FO sales of APL registered decline of 8% YoY and 31% YoY, respectively. April 2019 sales of APL fell 16% YoY to 171k tons with FO volumes registering hefty decline of 40% YoY but arrived 32% higher on MoM basis. Moreover, HSD sales during the month also fell 15% YoY/3% MoM. However, MS volumes in April 2019 were up 6% YoY/9% MoM.
HASCOL’s overall volumetric sales arrived at 1.72 million tons, down 29% YoY during 10MFY19. MS and HSD sales volumes clocked-in at 607k tons (-24%YoY) and 756k tons (-31%YoY), respectively. HASCOL’s overall market share remained relatively stagnant at 11% during 10MFY19, despite increase in FO market share (+5pps) to 14% compared to 9% during the same period last year. However, HASCOL’s MS market share declined to 10% (-3ppsYoY) as other players (particularly APL) increased their share during the period in MS market.
“Going forward, higher base effect of FO volumes, fall in auto sales (-4% YoY in 9MFY19) and increase in smuggled Iranian fuel will continue to impair POL demand, we believe. Moreover, with international oil prices showing no signs of weakness, thereby increasing likelihood for further rise in domestic POL prices, demand is expected to remain under pressure,” the Pearl Securities report noted.