Pakistan’s natural gas demand to cross 7.0 BCF mark by 2030

KARACHI: The State of the Regulated Petroleum Industry Report FY 2018-19 issued by Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) has estimated Pakistan’s gas demand to surpass 7.0 billion cubic feet/day (BCF) mark by 2030.

“The gas utility companies have added more than 0.5 million domestic, commercial and industrial consumers, in their respective systems, during fiscal year 2018-19. Consumers addition is increasing the gap between demand and supplies, day by day. Especially in winter, the gas demand further increases and as a result the government is forced to curtail supplies to various sectors,” report added.

The gap between demand and supply is expected to increase to 2.679 BCF in FY 2022-23 and 4.796 BCF by FY 2027-28 without the imported gas. The possible gap can be bridged through enhancement in indigenous gas exploration & production through incentivizing this sector, import of interstate natural gas through development of cross-country gas pipelines and increased import of LNG.

Indigenous natural gas produced from the gas fields located across Pakistan clocked in at 4.319 billion cubic feet/day (BCF) in FY 2018-19, while 21 percent of the country’s gas demand was met through the imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), State of the Regulated Petroleum Industry Report FY 2018-19 issued by Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) suggests.

The major gas producing fields remained Sui, Uch, Qadirpur, Sawan, Zamzama, Badin, Bhit, Kandhkot, Mari and Manzalai.

Sindh stood as the major supplier with a contribution in gas supply of around 46 percent while Balochistan, KP and Punjab followed with shares of 11 percent, 12 percent and 3 percent respectively. While the share of RLNG, in the overall gas supply, has increased to 27 percent during FY 2018-19.

In a strategy to liberalize the existing gas market of the country, Third-Party Access Rules for pipelines have been developed and notified. On the similar analogy, Third-Party Access Rules for LNG Terminals are being developed by OGRA which shall play a pivotal role in liberalization of LNG/ RLNG market of the country.

Report suggest the consumption of petroleum products declined by 20.62 percent to 19.56 million tons during FY 2018-19 as compared to previous year’s 24.64 million tons. The contraction in consumption was observed in all main sectors including power, which suffered huge decline of 56.72 percent to 2.76 million tons during FY 2018-19 as compared to 6.37 million tons in FY 2017-18, followed by industrial sector, which observed lower consumption by 30.16 percent and transport sector showed a fall of 6.01 percent.

The product-wise consumption of Petroleum Oil Lubricant (POL) products shows that Furnace Oil (FO) consumption decreased by 52.54 percent, High Speed Diesel (HSD) by 13.64 percent, Aviation Fuel by 12.25 percent and Kerosene Oil by 10.10 percent in FY 2018-19 as compared to last year. The decline in consumption of FO is mainly owing to lower intake by power sector for power generation and less HSD consumption due to sluggish economic activities in the country. Whereas the consumption of Light Diesel Oil (LDO) increased by 19.98 percent and Motor Spirit (MS) by 2.33 percent during this period.

Refineries’ total production declined by 9.20 percent to 12.40 million tons during FY 2018-19 as compared to 13.64 million tons in FY 2017-18.

Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) share in country’s primary energy supplies is about 1.2 percent. This low share of LPG may be attributed to supply constraints and comparatively higher price of LPG in relation to competing fuels like natural gas and wood etc.

The size of LPG market during FY 2018-19 was around 1,061,447 MT/Annum which is 17 percent lower as compared to last year’s 1,280,550 MT/Annum. Major decline in LPG consumption was observed in industrial sector amounting to 25 percent, commercial 19 percent and domestic 10 percent as compared to last year. The decline in import of LPG from 34 to 24 percent may be attributed to less consumption of LPG during the period under review.

Tagged , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Comments are closed.