*Pak oil sales in Apr-2020 likely to fall by 36% YoY, but up 1% MoM*

Pak oil sales for Apr-2020 are expected to decline by 36% YoY amidst the COVID-19 outbreak, however it may improve by 1% MoM.

The decline on a YoY basis is largely driven by declines in Furnace Oil (FO) and Motor Spirit (MS) volumes of 75% YoY and 36% YoY, respectively. High Speed Diesel (HSD) sales also declined by 16% YoY.

That said, HSD sales have improved by 38% MoM on the back of demand coming from starting of wheat harvesting season, resulting in overall MoM improvement. MS and FO volumes were down 22% MoM and 2% MoM, respectively.

During 10MFY20, overall volumes are likely to drop by 15% YoY due to overall economic slowdown and increasing impact of COVID-19 outbreak.

PSO sales are likely to decline the most by 47% YoY. FO volumes are expected to decline by 96% YoY, HSD volumes by 13% YoY and MS volumes by 46% YoY.

HASCOL volumes are likely to decline by 33% YoY and by 5% MoM. The lower-than-industry decline is likely to improve HASCOL’s market share to 7.8% in April-2020 from 7.4% in March-2020 and 6.7% in 10MFY20.

APL and SHEL volumes are expected to decline by 44% YoY and 42% YoY, respectively during the month.