KARACHI: According to the latest numbers revealed by the OCAC, volumetric sales for both black and white oil declined during Jul’19 with overall OMC volumes clocking-in at 1.53mn tons as compared to 1.64mn tons sold in the corresponding month of last year, depicting a decline of 6%YoY, a report issued by Pearl Securities said.
However in terms of MoM performance, POL volumes depicted double-digit increase (+13%YoY) compared to Jun’19.
Furnace oil (FO) volumes continue to weigh on growth numbers for POL sales as FO sales declined 16%YoY during Jul’19. However on a MoM basis, FO sales rose 6% in Jul’19. With shift in country’s power generation mix towards cheaper fuel sources (Coal & RLNG), continuous decline in FO sales is likely to keep total POL volumes on the lower side during FY20.
In white oil segment, Motor spirit (MS) remains the only bright spot with sales at 0.63mn tons (+3%YoY) during the month whereas relative to Jun’19, MS volumes were up by 12%. However, High-speed diesel (HSD) sales were 11%YoY lower during Jul’19 but were considerably up (22%YoY) compared to the preceding month. Notable slowdown in economic activity, insipid auto sales & increase in smuggled Iranian fuel has impaired demand for retail fuels.
PSO volumes arrived at 0.75mn tons (+16%YoY/+17%MoM), with notable increase depicted in both black and white oil segment as FO, MS and HSD posted increase of 19%YoY, 17%YoY and 12%YoY respectively. Moreover, overall market share of PSO incremented 9.5ppsYoY to 49% during the month. With respect to segment wise market share, PSO recorded increase in all major fuels i.e. FO/MS/HSD at 59%/42%/47%, up 17ppsYoY/5ppsYoY/10ppsYoY, respectively.
Attock Petroleum (APL)’s oil sales exhibited decline of 10%YoY at 0.15mn tons during Jul’19 whereas on a MoM basis, volumes remained unchanged. APL’s overall market share depicted meager fall of 0.4ppsYoY to 10% as FO/MS/HSD volumes arrived lower (-13%YoY/-11%YoY/-4%YoY) compared to Jul’18. Consequently, MS market share decreased 1.4ppsYoY to around 9% whereas share of both FO and HSD incremented 0.4ppsYoY and 0.8ppsYoY to 13% and 11% respectively.
HASCOL’s overall volumetric sales arrived at 66.5k tons, down by a significant 71%YoY during Jul’19. Stupendous fall was witnessed in all major fuel segments compared to Jul’18 with FO, MS and HSD sales falling 73%YoY, 71%YoY and 69%YoY respectively. Consequently HASCOL’s overall market share depleted to a mere 4% (-10ppsYoY) in Jul’19, with market share in FO/MS/HSD segments contracting by 13ppsYoY/8ppsYoY/9ppsYoY to 6%/3%/5% in Jul’19.
Going forward, analysts expect volumes to remain lower as considerable fall in auto sales (-11%YoY in FY19), notable decline in economic activity and increase in smuggled Iranian fuel is likely to impair POL demand. Moreover, with government hiking POL prices further for the month of Aug’19 and no significant decline expected in domestic POL prices in the coming months, demand is expected to remain under pressure.