KARACHI: Pakistan's both black and white oil volumetric sales declined during seven months (July-January 2018-19) with overall sales volumes of oil marketing companies (OMC) clocking-in at 10.70 million tons as compared to 14.97 million tons sold in the corresponding period last year, exhibiting a hefty decline of 29 percent, according to the latest numbers revealed by the Oil companies Advisory Committee (OCAC). Petroleum products volumes fell 13 percent in January 2019 YoY, but rose on MoM basis. Volumes increased 9 percent to 1.57 million tons in the month. Furnace oil (FO) sales continue to drag overall POL volumes lower with a hefty decline of 61 percent YoY in 7MFY19, whereas monthly FO volumes were 8 percent YoY lower as well. However, on a MoM basis, FO sales were up 61 percent in January 2019. “With country's power generation mix shifting to other fuel sources (coal & RLNG), thereby significantly truncating FO volumes, high base-effect pertaining to FO volumes will keep POL volumes on the lower side in FY19,” Muhammad Nabeel at Pearl Securities said. In white oil segment, Motor spirit (MS) sales exhibited meager decline of 2 percent YoY at 4.25 million tons during 7MFY19 whereas January volumes clocked-in at 0.61 million tons, up 3.0 percent YoY/1.0 percent MoM. High-speed diesel (HSD) sales declined by a hefty 21 percent YoY during 7MFY19 whereas January 2019 HSD volumes were also lower 24 percent YoY/4.0 percent MoM. “Higher domestic POL prices, slowdown in truck sales and increase in smuggled Iranian fuel has led to the overall reduction in retail fuel volumes,” Nabeel said. Pakistan State Oil (PSO) volumes declined 47 percent YoY to clock-in at 4.30 million tons in 7MFY19, primarily due to significant fall in FO sales as the state-owned oil giant sold only 812,000 tons of FO versus 3.36 million tons sold during 7MFY18, down 76 percent. In January, FO, MS and HSD volumes declined by 15 percent YoY, 7.0 percent YoY and 31 percent YoY, respectively. “PSO is continuously facing competitive pressure from other OMCs where its market share during 7MFY19 in all major fuels i.e. FO/MS/HSD has fallen to 45 percent/36 percent/38 percent, down 27pps/5pps/8pps, respectively,” Pearl Securities analyst said. Attock Petroleum (APL) oil sales during 7MFY19 clocked in at 1.15 million tons, down 5.0 percent. However, APL still managed to lift its overall market share by 2.7pps to almost 11 percent during 7MFY19 as MS volumes for APL were up 17 percent during the period whereas its share in MS market increased by 1.6pps to almost 10 percent. On the other hand, HSD and FO sales of APL registered decline of 3.0 percent and 30 percent, respectively. January sales rose 4.0 percent YoY to 159,000 tons with FO volumes registering increase of 9.0 percent YoY/63 percent MoM, whereas HSD sales during January fell 7.0 percent YoY/30 percent MoM and MS volumes were up 9.0 percent YoY but fell on a MoM basis by 18 percent during January 2019. HASCOL’s overall volumetric sales arrived at 1.28 million tons, down 24 percent during 7MFY19. MS and HSD sales volumes clocked-in at 433,000 tons down 22 percent and 554,000 tons down 28 percent, respectively. HASCOL’s overall market share rose 0.8pps to almost 12 percent during 7MFY19, primarily supported by the increase in FO market share, which rose to 16 percent from 8.0 percent during the same period last year. “HASCOL’s MS market share declined 2.6pps to 10 percent as other players particularly APL increased their share during the period in MS market”. “Going forward, with winter season impacting POL demand along with higher base effect of FO sales, we anticipate volumes to remain on the lower side. However, with international oil prices continuing to remain near $60/bbl mark and the government marginally reducing POL prices, lower retail fuel prices and widening of pricing differential with CNG may provide some support to POL demand,” Nabeel said.